GLORIARMS Research
Fed · ECB · Bank of England · Bank of Japan · SNB · Bank of Canada — all policy-rate changes since 2008 in one chart, plus current market expectations for the October meetings and year-end 2026.
Data as of: 24 October 2026 · last reviewed: 25 October 2026
AI-assisted · reviewed by Stefan Hamberger
The rate cycle has turned decisively: within the space of a week, the ECB delivered its second hike of the new tightening phase and the Fed its first hike since July 2023, ending the hold-and-wait phase that had characterised the summer. On September 10, 2026 the ECB raised all three key rates by 25 bp, taking the deposit facility rate to 2.50% (effective September 16) — Reuters polling ahead of the meeting had found all 65 economists surveyed expecting exactly this step, in most respondents' view the last of the campaign. On September 16, 2026 the Fed followed with its own 25 bp increase, taking the target range to 3.75–4.00% in a unanimous 12–0 vote — its first hike since July 2023 and a reversal of the "hold through year-end" calls several banks had made only weeks earlier. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said the move would "support a timelier return to the Committee's 2 percent goal"; the updated Summary of Economic Projections showed 16 of 18 participants expecting at least one further hike in 2026, four of them two more. The energy-price shock triggered by the war in the Middle East remains the backdrop to this shift: euro-area inflation rose to 3.2% in August (confirmed final figure, revised from the 3.3% flash estimate; up from 2.9% in July; core 2.4%, down from 2.5%), driven by a jump in energy prices to +14.3% year-on-year (up from +10.3% in July), while US inflation eased from its May peak (4.2%) through 3.5% in June to 3.4% in July (core 2.5%, down from 2.6%; the Fed's 2% longer-run objective is defined on the headline PCE price index, while core PCE — closely watched as a gauge of underlying inflation — was unchanged at 3.3% in July); the August US CPI, released on September 11, held at 3.4% year-on-year (core 2.4%, down from 2.5%); core PCE for August came in at 3.0% (BEA, September 30, 2026, alongside an annual revision of the national accounts; headline PCE 3.4%). The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 1.00% back on June 16 — the highest level since September 1995 — and held at that level through July; on September 18 it followed through, raising its policy rate by 25 bp to 1.25% — effective September 24 and the highest level since September 1995 — by a 7–2 majority vote (Asada Toichiro and Sato Ayano dissenting); next meeting: October 29–30, 2026. The Bank of England held again on September 17, at 3.75% (vote 6–3 — Greene, Mann and Pill again dissenting for +25 bp to 4.00%), even as UK inflation rose to a five-month high of 3.1% on the energy shock from the Middle East conflict; its next meeting falls on November 5, 2026. The Bank of Canada last met on September 2 (seventh consecutive hold at 2.25%, flagging rising upside inflation risk from tariffs and oil prices, next meeting October 28); the SNB left its policy rate unchanged at 0.00% on September 24 and raised its conditional inflation forecast (average 0.7% for 2026, 0.8% each for 2027 and 2028); its next assessment falls on December 10. Eurostat's final figure, published on October 16, confirmed euro-area inflation at 3.8% in September (up from 3.2% in August; core 2.5% and energy +18.8% according to the flash estimate of October 2). In the week to October 9, expectations shifted further: the minutes of the Fed’s September meeting (released October 7) showed that all participants had backed the hike and that most saw a further increase as likely appropriate by year-end, while market pricing for an October hike fell to roughly 16–22% (CME FedWatch 21.6% on October 7; about 16–18% on October 9, per market reports); a Reuters poll of 73 economists (October 5–8) found 70 expecting the ECB to hold at 2.50% on October 29 and 64 expecting a further hike in December; and market pricing for a Bank of England hike on November 5 stood at about 81% as of October 7 (FXStreet). In the week to October 16, US consumer prices dominated: September CPI (BLS, published October 14) rose to 3.7% year-on-year from 3.4% in August (+0.6% month-on-month; consensus 3.6%), with core inflation at 2.6% from 2.4% (consensus 2.5%); the market-implied probability of an October Fed hike jumped to about 47% from about 22% before the release and then eased to around 32%, while futures priced roughly a 94% chance of a December hike, and Citi now expects a December hike (CME FedWatch and futures pricing as reported by investingLive on October 14; the Citi forecast is a third-party view). Fed Chair Warsh gave no signal on the next move on October 16 (Euronews). In Canada, the September labour-force survey showed about 68,000 jobs lost and unemployment up to 6.5%, which lowered market-implied odds of an October Bank of Canada hike to about 25% from about 40% (Wealth Professional); five surveyed Bay Street economists expected the Bank to hold on October 28 at that point. In the week to October 23–24, inflation data and central-bank signals pointed further towards tightening: UK CPI rose to 3.5% in September from 3.1% (core 2.8%, services 3.7%; ONS, October 21), and markets priced about a 98% probability of a Bank of England hike to 4.00% on November 5 (LSEG data, per FXStreet, October 23). Canadian CPI rose to 3.1% in September from 3.0% (Statistics Canada, October 19; CPI-trim 1.8%, CPI-median 1.9%); after remarks by Governor Macklem, futures moved from about a 30% to about a 75% probability of an October Bank of Canada hike, and in a Reuters poll (October 21–23) 19 of 34 economists expect a 25 bp increase to 2.50% on October 28 — in the previous poll, 80% had expected a hold through year-end. For the Fed, CME FedWatch put the probability of an October hike at about 9% and of a December hike at about 84% (as reported by Yardeni Research on October 24); nearly all economists in a Reuters poll expect a hold in October and a hike in December (FXStreet, October 23). For the ECB and the BoJ, a hold is expected this week; markets priced about a 75% (ECB) and 74% (BoJ) probability of a December hike (Yardeni Research, October 24), and in a Reuters poll (October 13–19) 54 of 78 analysts expect the BoJ to raise its rate to 1.50% in December.
The chart shows policy-rate paths as step lines — each step is a rate change; meetings without a rate change are not plotted. Clearly visible: the synchronized collapse during the 2008/09 financial crisis, the decade of zero and negative rates, the historically steep 2022/23 tightening cycle against the inflation wave, the 2024/25 easing cycle — and the current plateau, from which the ECB and the BoJ were the first to turn upwards again in June 2026.
Policy rates in % since January 2008. Fed: upper bound of the target range · ECB: deposit facility rate · BoJ/SNB: market convention — simplified policy-rate equivalents, not one-for-one comparable with Fed/ECB/BoE/BoC (see methodology). New data points: Fed +25 bp to 4.00% (upper bound, Sep 16, 2026) and BoJ +25 bp to 1.25% (Sep 18, 2026, effective Sep 24); for the ECB, BoE, SNB and BoC, October 24, 2026 marks an as-of checkpoint with no additional rate change beyond the level already plotted (ECB's most recent hike to 2.50% on Sep 10, BoE's hold at 3.75% on Sep 17, BoC's hold at 2.25% on Sep 2, SNB's hold at 0.00% on Sep 24). Steps plotted since June: ECB +25 bp to 2.25% (effective Jun 17) and BoJ +25 bp to 1.00% (Jun 16); in July, the ECB (Jul 23), the BoC (Jul 15), the Fed (Jul 29), the BoE (Jul 30) and the BoJ (Jul 31) all confirmed their stance with holds; on Sep 10 the ECB hiked again, by 25 bp to 2.50%; on Sep 16 the Fed hiked by 25 bp to 4.00%; on Sep 17 the BoE held at 3.75%; on Sep 18 the BoJ hiked by 25 bp to 1.25% (effective Sep 24). Sources: official central bank records.
Publicly reported assessments by major international banks of expected policy-rate levels at year-end 2026. Compiled exclusively from media reports and freely accessible publications by the institutions themselves (no reproduction of paywalled research reports). These are third-party views as at the date indicated and may be revised at any time. Note: the ECB (Sep 10, to 2.50%) and the Fed (Sep 16, to 3.75–4.00%) have both since hiked, superseding several "hold through year-end" calls below (see Fed/GS in particular); the BoE held at 3.75% on Sep 17 (vote 6–3), in line with most year-end forecasts below; the BoJ followed on Sep 18 with a 25 bp hike to 1.25% (effective Sep 24).
| Bank | Fed now 3.75–4.00% | ECB now 2.50% | BoE now 3.75% | BoJ now 1.25% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs | 3.50–3.75% — hold through year-end, cuts pushed to 2027 (Aug 17, 2026 ⁵) | 2.50% — hikes in Jun + Sep (04/2026) | 3.75% — extended hold, next cut only in 2027 (spring 2026) | Hike in July; terminal rate 1.50% by mid-2027 (12/2025 ¹) |
| J.P. Morgan | 3.50–3.75% — no cuts in 2026; next move more likely a hike in 2027 (03/2026) | 2.50–2.75% — hikes from June ² (03/2026) | 4.00% — hike call pushed from June to November (Jun 17, 2026 ⁶) | 1.00% — hike in June (spring 2026) |
| Bank of America | 3.50–3.75% — next cut only July 2027; hike risk flagged (05/2026) | n/a | n/a | Terminal rate 1.50–1.75% by end-2027 (12/2025 ¹) |
| Deutsche Bank | 3.50–3.75% — on hold through 2026 (04/2026) | 2.50% — hikes in Jun + Sep (04/2026) | n/a — hawkish tone, no published number (05/2026) | n/a |
| Barclays | 3.50–3.75% — no cuts; next cut March 2027 (05/2026) | 2.50% — hikes in Jun + Sep (04/2026) | n/a — hike risk flagged (03/2026) | 1.25% — hike call pushed from July to October, September nearly as likely (as of ~08/2026 ³) |
| HSBC | 3.50–3.75% — hold (Q1/2026) | 2.00% — hold (Q1/2026 ¹) | n/a | n/a ¹ |
| NatWest ⁴ | n/a — no publicly reported updated forecast found since its “Year Ahead 2026” (Dec 2025) | |||
| For comparison: actual/consensus | 3.75–4.00% (delivered Sep 16) | 2.50% (delivered Sep 10, effective Sep 16) | 3.75% (delivered Sep 17, hold) | 1.25% (delivered Sep 18, effective Sep 24) |
¹ Dated before the Middle East energy shock (late February 2026) — possibly superseded. ² Originally three hikes including April; the April hike did not materialise and no publicly reported revision could be found. ³ Reported via a secondary source only — treat with caution; the hike originally expected for July did not materialise (BoJ held at 1.00% on Jul 31). ⁴ NatWest = formerly Royal Bank of Scotland. ⁵ Supersedes GS's earlier 05/2026 call (one cut in Dec). ⁶ Supersedes JPM's earlier 04/2026 call (hike in June) after that hike failed to materialise.
Sources (selection): Reuters via Investing.com, Mar 20, 2026 (round-up of ECB/BoE hike calls: J.P. Morgan, Barclays, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs) · CNBC, Mar 20, 2026 · investingLive, May 11, 2026 (GS/Fed, superseded) · Yahoo Finance/Goldman Sachs, Aug 17, 2026 (GS/Fed, current call) · TheStreet, Mar 2026 (JPM/Fed) · CBS News, May 2026 (BofA/Fed) · Reuters via Investing.com, Apr 17, 2026 (DB/Fed) · FXStreet, Apr 13, 2026 (DB/ECB) · Reuters via Investing.com, May 4, 2026 (Barclays/Fed) · Reuters via Investing.com, Jun 17, 2026 (JPM/BoE, current call) · Investing.com, ~08/2026 (Barclays/BoJ) · HSBC Global Economics Quarterly, Q1 2026 · NatWest Year Ahead 2026, Dec 2025 · ECB consensus row: Reuters poll, Sep 3, 2026 (65 economists) · BoE consensus row: Reuters poll via HomeOwners Alliance, Aug 18, 2026 (64 economists).
All institutions and trademarks mentioned are the property of their respective owners. They are referenced solely for source attribution; no affiliation with or endorsement by these institutions is implied.
Expectations have shifted dramatically since the outbreak of the war in late February 2026: as recently as February, markets were still pricing further rate cuts for 2026 almost everywhere — those bets have not just been unwound but reversed into actual hikes. The ECB delivered its second hike of the cycle on September 10 (to 2.50%), and the Fed followed on September 16 with its first hike since July 2023 (to 3.75–4.00%). The Bank of Canada confirmed its wait-and-see stance on September 2 with a seventh consecutive hold, flagging a hike risk from tariffs and oil prices; the BoE held at 3.75% on September 17 (vote 6–3), and the BoJ followed on September 18 with a 25 bp hike to 1.25% (effective September 24).
| Central bank | Current rate | Next meeting (2026) | Expectation for next meeting | Expectation for year-end 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed | 3.75–4.00% | Oct 27–28 | Hike delivered on Sep 16 (unanimous 12–0, +25 bp to 3.75–4.00%; first hike since July 2023); updated dot plot: 16 of 18 members see at least one more hike before year-end 2026; September minutes (Oct 7): most officials see a further hike as likely appropriate by year-end; market-implied probability of an October hike ~9% (CME FedWatch, Oct 23–24, per Yardeni Research; ~32% on Oct 14–15); December hike ~84% priced | 3.75–4.50%; per the Sep 16 dot plot, 16 of 18 FOMC members see at least one more hike in 2026 |
| ECB | 2.50% | Oct 29 | Hike delivered on Sep 10 (unanimous, +25 bp to 2.50%; Lagarde: "no-brainer"); Reuters poll (Oct 5–8, 73 economists): 70 expect a hold on Oct 29 — the ECB has signalled a meeting-by-meeting approach, with a further hike not ruled out; markets price ~75% for a December hike (Yardeni Research, Oct 24) | 2.75% (64 of 73 economists expect a hike in December; 40 of 70 see the peak at 2.75%, 24 at 3.00%; Reuters poll, Oct 5–8) |
| BoE | 3.75% | Nov 5 | Hold delivered on Sep 17 (vote 6–3 — Greene, Mann, Pill for +25 bp to 4.00%); UK CPI rose to 3.5% in September (from 3.1%; core 2.8%); market pricing for a hike on Nov 5: ~98% (LSEG data, per FXStreet, Oct 23) | 3.75–4.00%; widest forecast range of the six (3.50% to 4.25%+); markets also largely price a further 25 bp hike in December (FXStreet, Oct 23) |
| BoJ | 1.25% | Oct 29–30 | Hike delivered on Sep 18 (vote 7–2 — Asada and Sato dissenting, +25 bp to 1.25%, effective Sep 24) — the highest level since September 1995; Reuters poll (Oct 13–19): hold expected on Oct 30; 54 of 78 analysts expect a hike to 1.50% in December | 1.50% (Reuters-poll majority: hike in December; markets ~74%, Yardeni Research, Oct 24); Goldman Sachs sees a terminal rate of 1.50% |
| SNB | 0.00% | Dec 10 | Hold delivered on Sep 24; conditional inflation forecast raised; willingness to intervene in FX markets reaffirmed | 0.00%; a return to negative rates is considered unlikely |
| BoC | 2.25% | Oct 28 | Hold delivered on Sep 2 (7th consecutive hold); BoC warns of hike risk from tariffs and oil prices; September CPI 3.1% (Oct 19); after Governor Macklem’s remarks, Reuters poll (Oct 21–23): 19 of 34 economists expect a hike to 2.50% on Oct 28; market pricing ~85% (Yardeni Research, Oct 24; ~25% after the September jobs report) | 2.50% (Reuters-poll majority, Oct 21–23; a further hike to 2.75% by end-March 2027 expected by 16 of 29) vs. 2.25% (economists expecting no move) |
From the crisis-era zero rate (2008–2015) through two tightening cycles to the peak at 5.50% (July 2023). Cuts began in September 2024; the final three steps only followed in late 2025. Since December 2025: a plateau at 3.50–3.75%, most recently confirmed with a hold on Jul 29, 2026 (vote 9–3 — three members for a hike). On Sep 16, 2026 the FOMC then unanimously (12–0) raised the rate by 25 bp to 3.75–4.00% — the first hike since July 2023, after several major banks had revised their forecast to a hike following the August CPI report (Sep 11: 3.4%, core 2.4%); the updated dot plot shows 16 of 18 members seeing at least one more hike in 2026. Next meeting: Oct 27–28, 2026. The minutes of the September meeting, released on October 7, showed all participants supporting the hike and most expecting a further increase to be appropriate by year-end; the market-implied probability of an October hike fell to roughly 16–22% in the following days, then jumped to about 47% (from about 22%) after the hotter September CPI of October 14 and eased to around 32% (CME FedWatch, as reported by investingLive); a December hike was priced at roughly 94%. In the week to October 23–24 the implied probability of an October hike fell to about 9% and that of a December hike to about 84% (CME FedWatch, per Yardeni Research, October 24).
Eight years of negative rates (2014–2022), then the steepest tightening cycle in euro history up to 4.00%. Eight cuts brought the rate to 2.00% by June 2025. On June 11, 2026 the ECB raised the deposit rate for the first time since the cycle ended — to 2.25% (effective June 17) — making it the first major Western central bank to reverse from the 2024/25 easing cycle back into tightening. On July 23, 2026 it confirmed this level with a unanimous hold. On September 10, 2026 — as all 65 economists in a September 3 Reuters poll had expected — the ECB delivered a second hike, raising all three key rates by 25 bp (deposit rate to 2.50%, effective September 16); most poll respondents saw this as the last step of what has been a historically short tightening campaign. The next meeting is October 28–29, 2026. A Reuters poll of 73 economists (October 5–8) expects a hold on October 29 (70 of 73) and another hike in December (64 of 73). As of October 24, markets priced about a 75% probability of a December hike (Yardeni Research).
A pandemic low of 0.10%, a peak at 5.25% (August 2023), followed by six quarterly cuts to 3.75%. On Jul 30, 2026 the BoE again held at 3.75% (vote 6–3, Pill, Greene and Mann for +25 bp to 4.00%). A Reuters poll of August 18, 2026 had found no economist surveyed expecting a change at the September 17 meeting, but market pricing narrowed sharply in the following weeks — around a 45% probability of a hike as of September 14. The Bank held again on September 17, on the same 6–3 split (Greene, Mann and Pill again for +25 bp), as UK inflation rose to a five-month high of 3.1% on the energy shock; its next meeting falls on November 5, 2026. UK inflation rose further to 3.5% in September (ONS, October 21); market pricing for a hike on November 5 rose to about 98% (LSEG data, per FXStreet, October 23; about 81% on October 7), with a further hike in December also largely priced.
The outlier: around 16 years of near-zero or negative policy rates (negative from 2016), with the exit from negative rates only in March 2024. Including that March 2024 exit, five increases have taken the policy rate to 1.00% — most recently +25 bp on Jun 16, 2026 (vote 7–1). On Jul 31, 2026 the BoJ confirmed this level with a hold (vote 8–1 — Takata for +25 bp to 1.25%). On Sep 18, 2026 the BoJ followed through — as a Bloomberg survey (Sep 11, 2026) of 52 watchers had predominantly expected — raising the policy rate by a 7–2 majority (Asada Toichiro and Sato Ayano dissenting) by 25 bp to 1.25%, effective from Sep 24, 2026 — the highest level since September 1995. Next meeting: Oct 29–30, 2026. In a Reuters poll (October 13–19), a hold is expected on October 30, while 54 of 78 analysts expect a hike to 1.50% in December; markets priced about a 74% probability of a December hike (Yardeni Research, October 24).
At −0.75% (2015–2022), the SNB ran one of the lowest policy rates worldwide (Denmark was also at −0.75% for a time). After a brief excursion to 1.75%, six steps from March 2024 brought it back to 0.00% — confirmed there on Jun 18 and Sep 24, 2026; excessive franc appreciation is addressed primarily through FX interventions rather than further rate cuts. The next policy assessment is scheduled for Dec 10, 2026 (quarterly cycle: March, June, September, December).
Nine cuts totalling 275 bp (June 2024 – October 2025) down to 2.25% — the most aggressive easing cycle of the six. Now caught in a squeeze: after a very weak start to 2026 amid tariff-related uncertainty — an initially reported Q1 contraction was since revised by Statistics Canada to modest growth (+0.1% q/q) — the economy rebounded sharply in Q2 2026 (+3.3% annualised, broad-based and export-led), while tariffs and elevated oil prices are at the same time pushing up inflation. In early October, economists were split on the October 28 decision (UBS, Manulife, Oxford Economics and Scotiabank expected a hike; RBC, Desjardins and Capital Economics did not), and market-implied hike odds ranged from roughly one in three to a coin flip depending on source and date. After the September labour-force survey (about 68,000 jobs lost, unemployment 6.5%), the implied probability of an October hike fell to about 25% (from about 40%) and five surveyed Bay Street economists expected a hold at that point (Wealth Professional). On July 15, 2026 the BoC held at 2.25% for the sixth consecutive time, and again on September 2, 2026 for the seventh — this time flagging that upside risks to its inflation outlook had increased amid persistently high oil prices and new tariffs, and saying it is prepared to adjust monetary policy as needed. Canadian inflation rose to 3.1% in September (Statistics Canada, October 19); after remarks by Governor Macklem, futures moved to about a 75% probability of an October hike, and in a Reuters poll (October 21–23) 19 of 34 economists expect a 25 bp increase to 2.50% on October 28 (market pricing about 85% as of October 24, Yardeni Research). Next meeting: Oct 28, 2026.
Current central bank interest rates and policy-rate changes by the ECB, the Fed, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the SNB and the Bank of Canada are a key input into interest rate risk management in corporate treasury. Treasurers hedging interest rate exposure – with interest rate swaps, caps, floors or forward rate agreements – need a clear view of the latest rate decisions, the interest rate outlook and forecasts for 2026, and market-implied rate expectations: is the next move a rate hike or a rate cut? This page documents policy-rate paths and every policy-rate change since 2008, central bank meeting dates and current market expectations – a starting point for interest rate hedging strategies, funding decisions and treasury planning.
Interest-rate differentials between currency areas are a central input into FX forward pricing: under covered interest parity, they determine the theoretical forward adjustment relative to spot, though observed forward points can also reflect the cross-currency basis, funding conditions, liquidity and market conventions. Monetary-policy divergence can also influence spot exchange rates, but FX movements depend on a broader set of factors – including expectations, growth, risk sentiment, capital flows and geopolitical developments. Corporate treasurers managing FX exposure from imports, exports or intercompany financing – using FX forwards, currency options or cross-currency swaps – will find relevant macro context for their hedging strategy here: ECB and Fed rate decisions, the turn in the rate cycle, and monetary-policy divergence across EUR/USD, GBP, JPY, CHF and CAD.
