GLORIARMS Research
Fed · ECB · Bank of England · Bank of Japan · SNB · Bank of Canada — all policy-rate changes since 2008 in one chart, plus current market expectations for the September meetings and year-end 2026.
Data as of: 3 September 2026 · last reviewed: 7 September 2026
AI-assisted · reviewed by Stefan Hamberger
The energy-price shock triggered by the war in the Middle East has turned global monetary policy on its head — the inflation picture remains split and deepened further in August: euro-area inflation rose to 3.3% on the flash estimate (August, up from 2.9% in July; core 2.4%, down from 2.5%), driven by a jump in energy prices to +14.3% year-on-year (up from +10.3% in July). US inflation, by contrast, has eased from its May peak (4.2%) through 3.5% in June to 3.4% in July (core 2.5%, down from 2.6%; core PCE — closely watched as a gauge of underlying inflation, though the Fed's 2% objective is defined on headline PCE — unchanged at 3.3% in July) — while growth is cooling; the August US CPI print is not due until September 11, 2026, after this update's cut-off. Across the six central banks covered here, the broad 2024/25 easing phase has largely given way to a more divergent policy environment. The ECB made the first move: on June 11, 2026 it raised the deposit facility rate by 25 bp to 2.25% (effective June 17), becoming the first major Western central bank to reverse its easing cycle. The Bank of Japan followed, raising its policy rate to 1.00% on June 16 — the highest level since September 1995. The Fed (June 17), the Bank of England and the SNB (both June 18), by contrast, kept their rates unchanged, as did the Bank of Canada (June 10, its fifth consecutive hold). In July, five of the six central banks covered here confirmed their respective stance with holds and growing hawkish factions — the ECB (Jul 23, unanimous), the Bank of Canada (Jul 15, sixth consecutive hold), the Fed (Jul 29, vote 9–3), the Bank of England (Jul 30, vote 6–3) and the Bank of Japan (Jul 31, vote 8–1). On September 2, the Bank of Canada confirmed its stance with a seventh consecutive hold at 2.25%, while highlighting that upside risks to its inflation outlook had increased amid persistently high oil prices and new tariffs, saying it is prepared to adjust monetary policy as needed. As of this update's cut-off, the meetings of the ECB (Sep 10), the Fed (Sep 15–16), the Bank of England (Sep 17) and the Bank of Japan (Sep 17–18) are still pending; a Reuters poll from September 3 found all 65 economists surveyed expect a further ECB step to 2.50% on Sep 10 — in most respondents' view, the last hike of what would be a historically short tightening campaign.
The chart shows policy-rate paths as step lines — each step is a rate change; meetings without a rate change are not plotted. Clearly visible: the synchronized collapse during the 2008/09 financial crisis, the decade of zero and negative rates, the historically steep 2022/23 tightening cycle against the inflation wave, the 2024/25 easing cycle — and the current plateau, from which the ECB and the BoJ were the first to turn upwards again in June 2026.
Policy rates in % since January 2008. Fed: upper bound of the target range · ECB: deposit facility rate · BoJ/SNB: market convention — simplified policy-rate equivalents, not one-for-one comparable with Fed/ECB/BoE/BoC (see methodology). Final data point (September 7, 2026) is an as-of marker (no rate change); June steps plotted: ECB +25 bp to 2.25% (effective Jun 17) and BoJ +25 bp to 1.00% (Jun 16); in July, the ECB (Jul 23), the BoC (Jul 15), the Fed (Jul 29), the BoE (Jul 30) and the BoJ (Jul 31) all confirmed their stance with holds, as did the BoC again on Sep 2 (7th consecutive hold). Sources: official central bank records.
Publicly reported assessments by major international banks of expected policy-rate levels at year-end 2026. Compiled exclusively from media reports and freely accessible publications by the institutions themselves (no reproduction of paywalled research reports). These are third-party views as at the date indicated and may be revised at any time. Note: the steps expected for June have been delivered — ECB on Jun 11 (deposit rate 2.25%, effective Jun 17) and BoJ on Jun 16 (to 1.00%); the BoC confirmed a seventh consecutive hold on Sep 2. The banks' year-end forecasts are largely unaffected, though several have since been revised (see Fed/GS, BoE/JPM, BoJ/Barclays below).
| Bank | Fed now 3.50–3.75% | ECB now 2.25% | BoE now 3.75% | BoJ now 1.00% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs | 3.50–3.75% — hold through year-end, cuts pushed to 2027 (Aug 17, 2026 ⁵) | 2.50% — hikes in Jun + Sep (04/2026) | 3.75% — extended hold, next cut only in 2027 (spring 2026) | Hike in July; terminal rate 1.50% by mid-2027 (12/2025 ¹) |
| J.P. Morgan | 3.50–3.75% — no cuts in 2026; next move more likely a hike in 2027 (03/2026) | 2.50–2.75% — hikes from June ² (03/2026) | 4.00% — hike call pushed from June to November (Jun 17, 2026 ⁶) | 1.00% — hike in June (spring 2026) |
| Bank of America | 3.50–3.75% — next cut only July 2027; hike risk flagged (05/2026) | n/a | n/a | Terminal rate 1.50–1.75% by end-2027 (12/2025 ¹) |
| Deutsche Bank | 3.50–3.75% — on hold through 2026 (04/2026) | 2.50% — hikes in Jun + Sep (04/2026) | n/a — hawkish tone, no published number (05/2026) | n/a |
| Barclays | 3.50–3.75% — no cuts; next cut March 2027 (05/2026) | 2.50% — hikes in Jun + Sep (04/2026) | n/a — hike risk flagged (03/2026) | 1.25% — hike call pushed from July to October, September nearly as likely (as of ~08/2026 ³) |
| HSBC | 3.50–3.75% — hold (Q1/2026) | 2.00% — hold (Q1/2026 ¹) | n/a | n/a ¹ |
| NatWest ⁴ | n/a — no publicly reported updated forecast found since its “Year Ahead 2026” (Dec 2025) | |||
| For comparison: market/consensus | 3.50–3.75% | 2.50% (Reuters poll, Sep 3) | 3.75% (Reuters poll, Aug 18) | 1.00–1.25% |
¹ Dated before the Middle East energy shock (late February 2026) — possibly superseded. ² Originally three hikes including April; the April hike did not materialise and no publicly reported revision could be found. ³ Reported via a secondary source only — treat with caution; the hike originally expected for July did not materialise (BoJ held at 1.00% on Jul 31). ⁴ NatWest = formerly Royal Bank of Scotland. ⁵ Supersedes GS's earlier 05/2026 call (one cut in Dec). ⁶ Supersedes JPM's earlier 04/2026 call (hike in June) after that hike failed to materialise.
Sources (selection): Reuters via Investing.com, Mar 20, 2026 (round-up of ECB/BoE hike calls: J.P. Morgan, Barclays, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs) · CNBC, Mar 20, 2026 · investingLive, May 11, 2026 (GS/Fed, superseded) · Yahoo Finance/Goldman Sachs, Aug 17, 2026 (GS/Fed, current call) · TheStreet, Mar 2026 (JPM/Fed) · CBS News, May 2026 (BofA/Fed) · Reuters via Investing.com, Apr 17, 2026 (DB/Fed) · FXStreet, Apr 13, 2026 (DB/ECB) · Reuters via Investing.com, May 4, 2026 (Barclays/Fed) · Reuters via Investing.com, Jun 17, 2026 (JPM/BoE, current call) · Investing.com, ~08/2026 (Barclays/BoJ) · HSBC Global Economics Quarterly, Q1 2026 · NatWest Year Ahead 2026, Dec 2025 · ECB consensus row: Reuters poll, Sep 3, 2026 (65 economists) · BoE consensus row: Reuters poll via HomeOwners Alliance, Aug 18, 2026 (64 economists).
All institutions and trademarks mentioned are the property of their respective owners. They are referenced solely for source attribution; no affiliation with or endorsement by these institutions is implied.
Expectations have shifted dramatically since the outbreak of the war in late February 2026: as recently as February, markets were still pricing further rate cuts for 2026 almost everywhere — those bets have since been largely unwound. The ECB reversed its easing cycle on June 11 (its first hike since the cycle ended), while the BoJ continued the normalisation it began in March 2024 with its step to 1.00% on June 16. The Bank of Canada confirmed its wait-and-see stance on September 2 with a seventh consecutive hold, while for the first time explicitly flagging a hike risk from tariffs and oil prices.
| Central bank | Current rate | Next meeting (2026) | Expectation for next meeting | Expectation for year-end 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed | 3.50–3.75% | Sep 15–16 | Hold delivered on Jul 29 (vote 9–3 — Hammack, Kashkari, Logan for +25 bp); CME FedWatch (early September) prices about 30% probability of a hike on Sep 16 | 3.50–3.75%; Goldman Sachs revised its call on Aug 17 to hold through year-end (cuts pushed to 2027); residual two-way risks |
| ECB | 2.25% | Sep 10 | Hold delivered on Jul 23 (unanimous, as expected); Reuters poll of Sep 3 (65 economists): 100% expect +25 bp to 2.50% on Sep 10 | 2.50%; 91% of respondents see this as the last step of the tightening campaign, 78% expect this level to hold through mid-2027 |
| BoE | 3.75% | Sep 17 | Hold delivered on Jul 30 (vote 6–3 — Pill, Greene, Mann for +25 bp to 4.00%); Reuters poll of Aug 18 (64 economists): no respondent expects a change on Sep 17 | 3.75%; 56 of 64 economists expect hold through year-end (overall forecast range: 3.50% to 4.25%+) |
| BoJ | 1.00% | Sep 17–18 | Hold delivered on Jul 31 at 1.00% (vote 8–1 — Takata for +25 bp to 1.25%); markets price about 80% probability of a hike on Sep 17–18 per Bloomberg (Aug 24) | 1.00–1.25%; Goldman Sachs sees a terminal rate of 1.50% |
| SNB | 0.00% | Sep 24 | Hold delivered on Jun 18; greater willingness to intervene reaffirmed | 0.00%; a return to negative rates is considered unlikely |
| BoC | 2.25% | Oct 28 | Hold delivered on Sep 2 (7th consecutive hold); BoC warns of hike risk from tariffs and oil prices | 2.25% (economist consensus) vs. 2.75–3.00% (swaps price hikes from October, as of June 2026) |
From the crisis-era zero rate (2008–2015) through two tightening cycles to the peak at 5.50% (July 2023). Cuts began in September 2024; the final three steps only followed in late 2025. Since December 2025: a plateau at 3.50–3.75%, most recently confirmed on Jul 29, 2026 (vote 9–3 — three members for a hike). The next meeting (Sep 15–16, 2026) is still pending; Goldman Sachs revised its call on Aug 17, 2026 to hold through year-end.
Eight years of negative rates (2014–2022), then the steepest tightening cycle in euro history up to 4.00%. Eight cuts brought the rate to 2.00% by June 2025. On June 11, 2026 the ECB raised the deposit rate for the first time since the cycle ended — to 2.25% (effective June 17) — making it the first major Western central bank to reverse from the 2024/25 easing cycle back into tightening. On July 23, 2026 it confirmed this level with a unanimous hold; the ECB reiterated its data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach and did not pre-commit to a specific rate path. A Reuters poll of September 3, 2026 nonetheless found all 65 economists surveyed expect a further step to 2.50% on September 10, 2026 — in most respondents' view, the last step of what would be a historically short tightening campaign.
A pandemic low of 0.10%, a peak at 5.25% (August 2023), followed by six quarterly cuts to 3.75%. On Jul 30, 2026 the BoE again held at 3.75% (vote 6–3, Pill, Greene and Mann for +25 bp to 4.00%). A Reuters poll of August 18, 2026 found no economist surveyed expects a change at the September 17, 2026 meeting.
The outlier: roughly 16 years of near-zero or negative policy rates (a 0–0.10% band from 2010, then −0.10% on part of excess reserves from 2016), with the exit from negative rates only in March 2024. Including that March 2024 exit, five policy-tightening steps have taken the policy rate to 1.00% — most recently +25 bp on Jun 16, 2026 (vote 7–1), the highest level since September 1995. On Jul 31, 2026 the BoJ confirmed this level with a hold (vote 8–1 — Takata for +25 bp to 1.25%). Per Bloomberg (Aug 24, 2026), markets now price about 80% probability of a hike at the Sep 17–18, 2026 meeting.
At −0.75% (2015–2022), the SNB ran one of the lowest policy rates worldwide (Denmark was also at −0.75% for a time). After a brief excursion to 1.75%, six steps from March 2024 brought it back to 0.00% — confirmed there on Jun 18, 2026; excessive franc appreciation is addressed primarily through FX interventions rather than further rate cuts. The next policy assessment is scheduled for Sep 24, 2026 (quarterly cycle: March, June, September, December).
Nine cuts totalling 275 bp (June 2024 – October 2025) down to 2.25% — the most aggressive easing cycle of the six. Now caught in a squeeze: after a very weak start to 2026 amid tariff-related uncertainty — an initially reported Q1 contraction was since revised by Statistics Canada to modest growth (+0.1% q/q) — the economy rebounded sharply in Q2 2026 (+3.3% annualised, broad-based and export-led), while tariffs and elevated oil prices are at the same time pushing up inflation. The swap market is nonetheless pricing hikes from October. On July 15, 2026 the BoC held at 2.25% for the sixth consecutive time, and again on September 2, 2026 for the seventh — this time flagging that upside risks to its inflation outlook had increased amid persistently high oil prices and new tariffs, and saying it is prepared to adjust monetary policy as needed. Next meeting: Oct 28, 2026.
Current central bank interest rates and policy-rate changes by the ECB, the Fed, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the SNB and the Bank of Canada are the key driver of interest rate risk management in corporate treasury. Treasurers hedging interest rate exposure – with interest rate swaps, caps, floors or forward rate agreements – need a clear view of the latest rate decisions, the interest rate outlook and forecasts for 2026, and market-implied rate expectations: is the next move a rate hike or a rate cut? This page documents policy-rate paths and every policy-rate change since 2008, central bank meeting dates and current market expectations – a starting point for interest rate hedging strategies, funding decisions and treasury planning.
Interest-rate differentials between currency areas are a central input into FX forward pricing: under covered interest parity, they determine the theoretical forward adjustment relative to spot, though observed forward points can also reflect the cross-currency basis, funding conditions, liquidity and market conventions. Monetary-policy divergence can also influence spot exchange rates, but FX movements depend on a broader set of factors – including expectations, growth, risk sentiment, capital flows and geopolitical developments. Corporate treasurers managing FX exposure from imports, exports or intercompany financing – using FX forwards, currency options or cross-currency swaps – will find relevant macro context for their hedging strategy here: ECB and Fed rate decisions, the turn in the rate cycle, and monetary-policy divergence across EUR/USD, GBP, JPY, CHF and CAD.
